Method of Forecasting for Human Resources Part 2

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Hello friends.

Now, let’s talk about the “transition analysis”.

Well, transitional analysis is “a technique that is used to analyze internal labor markets and forecast internal labor supply”.

This is a very simple and effective technique to study the internal labor market of the organization and at the same time, whenever we hire a new person for a position, there is a common question, what is my career path in this particular role in future, you can also answer that with the data of this particular analysis. And what kind of promotions will be given in the future, what kind of workforce planning will have to be done, you can analyze all those aspects with this particular technique. Okay.

You can also “forecast the number of people who are currently working for the organization likely to still be employed in various positions according to their skill sets at some point in the future”.

The transitional analysis is “best performed for a limited number of jobs at a time so that the interpretation is quite easy and others can understand the analysis well.

Now, I am going to give you an example of how transitional analysis works.

Now, look, this is a “target position”. Assume that it’s a sales supervisor position or a human resource manager’s position. It can be any position. Hence, we will call it a target position on which we are going to do a whole transition analysis.

Now, if this particular position is being transferred internally, then from where people can come, they are our "feeder positions". Right. so, this is “feeder position 1” and this is “feeder position 2”.

Now suppose a person comes to this particular position, what after that? Either he is promoted, either he leaves the organization, either he has a lateral move or transfers inside the organization, or if his performance in this particular position is not good, then he gets a demotion from here. (Got it?)

So now see, I have a complete flowchart of this method for a particular job. Therefore, I can understand what the future holds for that position? How many people will come to that position? How do they transition to a new position? We can easily identify all these with this analysis. Okay.

Now, let’s talk about “internal labor market forecasting methods”.

The first one is “Judgement”.

Whatever your past experience, whatever past incidents have happened, based on that you can get a fair judgment of what will be the future of a particular position.

After this, comes a very important tool, “talent inventories”.

Now, what are talent inventories? The summary of each employee’s skills, competencies, and qualifications in the organization is managed in a document.

Then, according to the positions that arrive or any new openings that are created, first of all, it is seen internally if the skill set of any employee matches that particular position. And this talent inventory is useful not only for new positions, but also for new growth opportunities as well as for promotions. Also, if a new project comes up in which a specific skill set is required, even then, this talent inventory comes in handy. Okay.

Then comes the “replacement charts”. What is it? Well, How many successors can a particular position have? So, say for example, if there is a role of a Vice President of Marketing, then what would be their successors? How is their present performance, are they ready for promotions and what are their developmental needs?

All those things get listed in a particular document. And based on that where there is a need for improvement, for example, if there is a need for improvement in competency, then according to that we see where by introducing what type of course that is a learning intervention, that competence can be made 100%. (Got it?)

Either then, if there is an issue in their performance, then using tools like coaching or mentoring, we can prepare them further. Okay.

After that comes a tool, "Employee surveys".

Well, the role of the Employee Survey is to identify the potential of the organization and reduce turnover.

Now turnover here means the employees who are leaving the organization. So, if say for example as of today X number of employees are dissatisfied due to some reasons with the organization, then if there are frequent employee surveys, then inside that we will know, that due to which reasons the employees are dissatisfied and as an organization or as a supervisor you can take required steps to reduce their dissatisfaction. Alright.

Now, when the internal turnover is reduced, the positions you have will be maintained and you will be able to plan the growth trajectory for the employees you have. (Understood?)

Now, let’s talk about “resolving labor supply and demand gaps”.

Well, the action plans that we have, address the anticipated surplus or shortage of employees. And based on that, we can understand that “whether a shortage or surplus of applicants is the result of temporary factors or whether it reflects a trend that is likely to continue is important because based on that we can use different staffing strategies”.

Let's say if at a particular time if you notice during a year, there is at most one search, in the applications of the applicants. But this is the number of applications that get reduced at a different time of the year.

Therefore, you know that if you want to hire for a particular position, which time period you have to choose throughout the year so that you can get an adequate number of applicants to fill your roles. Right.

Thank you.

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